Four years since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia still occupies roughly 20 percent of the country after gaining almost five thousand square kilometers of territory in 2025. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine maintains drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and military sites.
Since January 2022, Ukraine has received approximately $385 billion in aid from the U.S. and EU, with nearly 56,000 civilian casualties, 3.7 million internally displaced, 5.9 million refugees, and 10.8 million requiring humanitarian assistance.
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The Trump administration made significant strides towards securing a peace settlement to end the war, presenting an ambitious twenty-point draft deal with a hopeful June deadline. Ukraine showed openness to the proposal, fostering a spirit of collaboration, even as some details like land concessions and security guarantees remain to be clarified.
Meanwhile, Russia expressed its commitment to the discussions, emphasizing the importance of the agreement previously outlined by President Putin and President Trump in Alaska, signaling a readiness to move forward.
Background
Armed conflict in eastern Ukraine began in early 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea. Protests in Kyiv against President Yanukovych’s rejection of an EU integration deal were violently suppressed, leading to his flight from the country in February 2014.
In March 2014, Russian special forces seized Crimea, with President Putin claiming to protect Russian citizens’ rights. Following a disputed referendum, Russia annexed Crimea, which intensified ethnic divisions, leading to independence referendums by pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk two months later.
Armed conflict in the regions quickly broke out between Russian-backed forces and the Ukrainian military. Though Russia denied military involvement, both Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reported Russian troops and military equipment near Donetsk and Russian cross-border shelling. The conflict transitioned to an active stalemate, with regular shelling and skirmishes occurring along the frontlines.
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In October 2021, U.S. intelligence gathered information about Russian troops building up near Ukraine, leading to a briefing at the White House about a likely invasion. The Biden administration shared intelligence broadly, including with allies like Ukraine.
Satellite images and social media in late 2021 showed Russian military equipment moving toward Ukraine, with no explanation from Russia.
In mid-December, Russia’s foreign ministry demanded that the U.S. and NATO stop military activities in Eastern Europe, halt NATO expansion, and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. The U.S. and NATO rejected these demands and warned of strong economic sanctions against Russia.
In early February 2022, satellite imagery revealed a significant buildup of Russian troops at the Belarus border. Diplomacy between the U.S., Russia, and European nations was unsuccessful, with the U.S. warning of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine due to military movements.
President Putin deployed troops in Luhansk and Donetsk under the guise of peacekeeping, prompting U.S. sanctions on these regions and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. However, U.S. and Ukrainian leaders disagreed on the invasion risk, with Ukrainian officials downplaying the threat and postponing troop mobilization.
On February 24, 2022, during a last-ditch UN Security Council effort to dissuade Russia from invading Ukraine, Putin announced the beginning of a full-scale land, sea, and air invasion, targeting Ukrainian military assets and cities across the country.
Putin said the operation aimed to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and stop the claimed genocide of Russians there. U.S. President Joe Biden called the attack “unprovoked and unjustified” and imposed strict sanctions on key Kremlin officials, including Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, as well as on four major Russian banks and the oil and gas industry, alongside European allies.
On March 2, 141 of 193 UN member states voted to condemn Russia’s invasion in an emergency UN General Assembly session, demanding that Russia immediately withdraw from Ukraine.
As the initial Russian invasion slowed in March, long-range missile strikes caused significant damage to Ukrainian military assets, urban residential areas, and communication and transportation infrastructure. Hospitals and residential complexes also sustained shelling and bombing attacks.
Later that month, Russia announced a “reduction in military activity” near Kyiv and Chernihiv, followed by a full withdrawal of all troops from Ukraine’s capital region by April 6. In Kyiv’s surrounding areas, civilians described apparent war crimes committed by Russian forces, including accounts of summary executions, torture, and rape.
On April 18, Russia began a significant offensive in eastern Ukraine, and by May, it had gained control of the strategic port city of Mariupol. Indiscriminate and targeted attacks against civilians in the city amplified allegations against Russian forces for international humanitarian law violations. Since the summer of 2022, fighting has largely been confined to Ukraine’s east and south.
The Russian takeover of several Ukrainian ports and the blockade of Ukrainian food exports worsened the global food crisis. Before the war, Ukraine was the top supplier of food to the World Food Program (WFP), which helps vulnerable people.
In July 2022, Russia and Ukraine agreed to release over twenty million tons of grain from ports under Russian control. However, in October, Russia ended the grain deal after claiming Ukraine attacked its naval forces.
Turkey managed to broker Russia’s return to the deal, which was extended several times until Russia pulled out on July 17, 2023. Ukraine then established safe shipping routes along the coasts of NATO countries Romania and Bulgaria, leading to increased grain exports compared to 2023.
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In mid-August 2022, the war moved south, raising global concerns about a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant on the Dnipro River. This facility, the largest nuclear plant in Europe, was taken over by Russian forces early in the conflict.
Fighting near the facility has raised concerns of critical damage to the plant: shelling of the plant’s switchyard has already led to nearby energy disruptions, such as a city-wide blackout in Enerhodar. Representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have visited Zaporizhzhia on multiple occasions to assess the threat of a nuclear accident.
Attacks on the site and damage to its infrastructure continue: in February 2025, the IAEA warned that continued attacks on Ukraine’s power grids could increase the risk of nuclear disaster.
In September 2022, Ukrainian forces advanced in the northeast and launched a renewed counteroffensive in the south. They regained important territory in the Kharkiv region, catching Russian forces off guard and disrupting key supply lines at Lyman before establishing a new front line. In southern Ukraine, they retook Kherson and pushed Russian forces out of all areas west of the Dnipro River.
Russia redeployed forces to Donetsk and sent reinforcements ahead of a February 2023 offensive. Later, Putin attempted to illegally annex Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, alluding to the possibility of nuclear escalation by referencing the U.S. use of nuclear weapons against Japan in World War II.
Following a winter stalemate, Putin announced plans in February to take all of Donbas by March 2023 in an offensive surge. However, the attack made little progress and devolved into a months-long siege of Bakhmut, a town of limited strategic, but substantial symbolic value.
By late May, Russia claimed control of the city, and Ukrainian attempts to recapture the area were unsuccessful. The United States estimates Russia suffered one hundred thousand casualties in Bakhmut.
On June 6, 2023, a breach in the Nova Kakhovka dam, sixty kilometers north of Kherson on the Dnipro River, caused severe flooding in southwest Ukraine, affecting over eighty thousand people who live in the riparian zone.
Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam to prevent a southeastern offensive. The Ukrainian dam operator said it was destroyed beyond repair. In June 2023, Ukraine launched a much-anticipated counteroffensive, attempting to break through Russian defenses eastward in Donetsk province and southward in Zaporizhzhia province, which forms the “land corridor” to Crimea.
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Ukrainian forces met stiff resistance and suffered heavy losses against hardened Russian defensive positions, air superiority, and minefields. Nonetheless, Ukraine made small gains on the ground and has stepped up attacks on bridges to Crimea, Russian ships, and buildings in Moscow.
Since February 24, 2022, the U.S. has provided over $118 billion in aid to Ukraine, including about $65 billion for military support. In early 2023, the Biden administration approved advanced weapons like the Patriot air defense system and top battle tanks.
The U.S. troop presence in Europe has also grown to over one hundred thousand. While major international figures condemn Russia, it continues to forge partnerships; North Korea and Iran share military resources, and countries like India and China are buying Russian oil and gas at lower prices.
On June 23, Putin faced a major internal challenge when Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the former leader of the Wagner Group of mercenaries, accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of shelling his forces and announced a “march of justice” to unseat the military leadership.
The mutiny followed months of tensions with the MoD. Wagner forces quickly occupied Rostov-on-Don, seized Russia’s southern military headquarters, and subsequently advanced more than halfway to Moscow. Putin declared the march “treason” and offered amnesty for soldiers who stopped.
On June 24, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko arranged for Prigozhin and his Wagner soldiers to move to Belarus. Two months later, Prigozhin died in a plane crash near Moscow, which U.S. officials suspect was caused by an explosion ordered by Putin.
In November 2023, Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated the war had reached a stalemate after Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive. Due to strategic tensions, Zelenskyy replaced Zaluzhnyi with General Oleksandr Syrsky on February 8, 2024.
Shortly after, Syrsky ordered the withdrawal of troops from Avdiivka, a town in Donetsk, to avoid encirclement. This decision, however, resulted in Russia’s most significant battlefield victory since capturing Bakhmut in May 2023.
Recent Developments
In early August 2024, Ukraine launched the Kursk Offensive, a surprise attack into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, marking the first major offensive by Ukrainian forces outside their borders to divert Russian attention from eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces seized 1,250 square kilometers of Russian land, but their progress slowed as Russia deployed over 50,000 troops in response. Russia claims to have regained about half of the lost territory.
In January 2025, Ukraine tried a second attack, but quick Russian responses limited their success. Over 10,000 North Korean troops aided Russia during both offensives but faced heavy losses and were withdrawn in February 2025.
Ukraine remains intent on applying offensive pressure on Russia through continual attacks on Russian infrastructure. In May 2024, Russia reported that Ukrainian drones targeted civilians in the Belgorod Oblast, killing six. In November 2024, Ukraine launched its largest drone strike on Russian territory, attempting to target Moscow.
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A month later, Ukrainian drones penetrated deep into Russian territory, reaching Kazan. As part of persistent attacks on Russian critical infrastructure, Ukrainian drones continue to target oil refineries, depots, and gas processing plants.
Meanwhile, Russian forces are trying to weaken the Ukrainian frontline. In May 2024, Russia attacked the Kharkiv region, making some gains but eventually stopping. However, their fall and winter campaigns expanded into eastern and southeastern Ukraine, especially in Donetsk, capturing over 4,000 square kilometers of land. Despite skepticism from international experts, Russia remains confident in its wartime economy.
Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons during the war raise concerns about escalation. In June 2023, Russia moved tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which confirmed receipt in December 2023. In June 2024, both Russia and Belarus held nuclear exercises. In November 2024, Putin changed Russia’s nuclear policy, saying that a conventional attack by an ally of a nuclear state could lead to a nuclear response from Moscow.
Ukraine has consistently received aid from the U.S. and NATO, but concerns have arisen about the potential end of the war following Trump’s election, as he aims to broker peace. Zelenskyy worries about exclusionary talks between the U.S. and Russia, which may lead to unfavorable outcomes for Ukraine, alongside fears of aid freezes.
Reference: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine
