China’s Latest Anti-Satellite Missile Test: Implications for Global Security

China conducted an anti-satellite missile test in November, but only confirmed it days later, after the US reported on the launch. Two Chinese military and space officials stated that the test was for an anti-ballistic missile aimed at enemy threats, not for targeting satellites.

Sources report that the missile successfully reached an impressive altitude of about 18,000 miles from Earth, where many Navigational and intelligence satellites operate.

China has introduced this new system to assess the mid-course interception of ballistic missiles, positioning itself with advancements akin to the American THAAD missile defense system, showcasing significant progress in its capabilities.

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China has two anti-satellite missiles, SC-19 and DN-3. The SC-19 targets small satellites in low orbit, while the DN-3 is aimed at spy and navigational satellites in high orbit. The SC-19 is already operational, and the DN-3 became operational before 2020. China continues to test these missiles to assess their capabilities.

China is enthusiastically advancing its capabilities in space-based warfare, while both Russia and the United States are collaborating to limit the development of ASAT technology. Since 2007, China has been testing anti-satellite missiles, making strides in this innovative field.

The first test showcased their remarkable potential by successfully targeting and destroying a sub-orbiting weather satellite, highlighting their commitment to improving space security. The test alarmed the US and Russia due to the resulting debris that endangers satellites at the same altitude and poses a threat to the International Space Station.

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China conducted more tests in later years. So far, China has successfully conducted six anti-satellite missiles, which is the known number in public media. The recent test shows China’s capability of striking satellites anywhere in orbit. which means during any war escalation against China, they will target Indian military satellites first to blind Indian defense assets.

WikiLeaks reported that in January 2010, the US, India, and other Asian nations protested China’s successful anti-satellite missile test using the SC 19 Space Rocket, which targets sub-orbiting satellites. Despite this, China has conducted over four additional successful tests.

India has not yet tested an ASAT missile. DRDO’s director general VK Saraswat mentioned at a seminar in IIT Bombay that India is working on an atmospheric kill vehicle for modified Agni missiles to function as a suborbital anti-satellite missile. However, there has been no clear progress in the missile program so far.

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The Agni missiles don’t have the range to reach most satellites, which are over 10,000 kilometers above Earth. While regular Agni missiles can only reach about 1,000 kilometers, a modified version of the Agni ASAT missile is reported to reach over 3,000 kilometers for destroying satellites in sub-orbit.

However, this will not make sense, while most of the Chinese Navigational Satellites, like Beidou and other military and spy satellites, fly well above 15,000 miles above the Earth’s atmosphere. If India tries to shoot down any Chinese sub orbiting commercial satellites, then China will bring down all the Indian Satellites orbiting in space.

There are various reasons why DRDO should speed up the development of ASAT. India must project their ambition to develop a real anti-satellite missile rather than a named ASAT missile.

While the five-nation council in the UN is seriously discussing banning anti-satellite missile tests and hypersonic missile tests, once they mature in these kinds of advanced technologies. So India must accelerate those hypersonic and Anti satellite project before the International ban is applied on those kinds of tests.

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Although India doesn’t have any intention to weaponise space. India has indeed started a program on developing the Asat missile. There have also been talks revolving around integrating the Agni-III ballistic missile with a satellite kill vehicle.

According to DRDO Chief V K Saraswat, India is considering the feasibility of developing an anti-satellite missile, which will lend a superior edge to India’s missile power. It would involve the development of lasers and an exo-atmospheric kill vehicle.

During a speech about DRDO’s future challenges and defence projects, DRDO Chief Saraswat discussed the important topic of an anti-satellite vehicle, a capability currently held by the U.S., Russia, and China. Developing this vehicle is possible if the Agni-III missile and the Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) kill vehicle are combined.

Credit: Third Party Reference

The DRDO Chief added that the effective range, which is about 1400-1500 kilometers, is sufficient to engage a satellite, a capability that significantly enhances India’s defense posture in the growing realm of space warfare. This advanced range allows for strategic deterrence, providing India with the means to act decisively if threats arise in outer space.

Moreover, India is known to have been developing an exo-atmospheric kill vehicle that can be integrated with the missile to engage satellites, showcasing the country’s commitment to advancing its technological prowess and ensuring national security.

The integration of such sophisticated systems poses a critical advancement in India’s defense strategy, allowing it to not only protect its own satellites but also assertively counter potential adversarial threats in the increasingly contested space environment.

Reference: https://unitebyjafar.wordpress.com/2016/07/11/china-has-tested-anti-satellite-missile-india-yet-to-develop/

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